LeBron James remains 1 of the NBA’s top players even at this stage of his career.
Earlier this week, Tom Brady announced his retirement from the NFL after 22 seasons. At age 44, Brady was an MVP candidate and still at the top of his game when he walked away.
Likewise, LeBron James remains elite in his 19th NBA season. How many more seasons do you think LeBron has left? And will he walk away before his superstar skills are noticeably fading?
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Trying to guess how much longer LeBron James can play at an elite level is like trying to predict how many more action movies Liam Neeson is going to crank out post-Medicare qualifying. James is the beneficiary (at a hefty price paid in dollars and sweat) of the most advanced nutrition, conditioning, fitness and recovery methods, equipment and staff in the history of athletics. His work ethic is upper echelon. So I easily could see him performing as is, with minimal drop-off, past his 40th birthday.
Will that be enough for him to reach what most of us think are his twin ambitions hinging on career duration? The first is somehow eclipsing Michael Jordan in casual NBA fans’ arguments over the “greatest player ever.” I don’t think extending his claim on the Most Sustained Excellence Ever title matters much in that particular debate, even after James passes Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the league’s top points getter. A lot of folks think he needs to pass Jordan in rings — that means seven, three more than he currently has – to distract from the six lost Finals on his resume (compared to Jordan’s zero). That’s not going to happen.
That leaves his dream of playing with, or at least in the same NBA game as, his 17-year-old son, Bronny. And that means making it into 2024-25, during which Pops would turn 40. Based on what I said above, that seems perfectly reasonable, with minimal decline in James’ skillset. Certainly not to the extent he would be embarrassed or hurt his reputation as an all-time Top 5 player. So mark me down for 22 seasons for James, synching up his farewell tour with his eldest son’s rookie NBA season.
James is under contract through the 2022-23 season, so there’s no question that James will join Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kobe Bryant and Jamal Crawford as the other lone NBA players to log 20 seasons. It also seems inevitable that James (36,414 points) will surpass Karl Malone (36,928) and Abdul-Jabbar (38,387) to become the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. And yet, I don’t think that’s how James will end his career. I’m convinced that he will sign another contract to extend his career.
The reasons? One, James has done a great job with delaying Father Time. Sure, James has missed a significant chunk of time because of injuries in recent seasons in 2017-18 (27 games), 2020-21 (27) and 2021-22 (14 and counting). But when James has actually played, he has looked as dominant as he has during his prime. The other reason: James has publicly stated as a goal that he would love to stay in the NBA if his son, Bronny, is able to enter the league. Bronny will be a senior next season at Sierra Canyon School, a private K-12 school in Chatsworth, Calif, and then would presumably have to play at least one year in college, with the G League Ignite or overseas before entering the NBA.
Given that trajectory, I think LeBron will ensure that his final season coincides with Bronny’s rookie season in the NBA, presumably in the 2024-25 season. By that point, LeBron might not be the same dominant player he once was. But I think he’d be willing to accept a relegated rule and a relative paycut so that he could play on his son’s team. So, expect LeBron to keep his options open as a free agent until he knows which team drafts his son.
LeBron James has previously said he hopes to play in the NBA until his son, Bronny James, reaches the league.
The remaining length of service for LeBron isn’t up to him completely; this is a collaboration with the basketball Gods. Because: A slip here, a twist of the ankle there, a pulled muscle over there, and the body may not cooperate. Just a hunch, but he probably has two more seasons of decent health and “elite” level, meaning, worthy of All-Star inclusion. And then there’s a matter of his exit strategy.
Does he follow the path of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Robert Parish, among other Hall of Famers, and overstay the welcome? Unlikely — pride and the fact he doesn’t need the money will prevent that. The fairy tale ending, of course, is LeBron playing just long enough to be teammates with Bronny for a year — either in the NBA if the kid makes it, or professionally overseas — then calls it quits.
I’m not LeBron James nor am I close enough to him to really know what his motivations are or how willing he is to play with deteriorated skills and athleticism. So me trying to guess the answer to this question (especially the second part) is pointless. In regard to his effectiveness on every single possession (especially on defense) in every single game, he’s already not the player he was two seasons ago. And maybe he’s more susceptible to injury with each passing year.
But he’s still a very effective offensive player, with solid numbers from the outside, shooting 68.8% in the paint (fourth-best mark of his career), and passing at a high level. Even on defense, he has the IQ and athleticism to make big plays on occasion. So, unless the wheels just fall off in the next 16 months, he could certainly keep playing beyond his current contract (expires in 2023) if he’s willing to make the requisite sacrifices.
Wanting to quote James accurately, I dug through the crates to find the latest remarks concerning his future. When asked last month on Uninterrupted about his hopes for the future of his son, Bronny, James minced no words. “I want him to get to the NBA. I am not even gonna lie. I want to be on the court with him. I think that would be an unbelievable moment. He’s about to be a junior, so the years … it could get close. But we should see.” That tells me that LeBron will play at least long enough to make that dream a reality, and why shouldn’t he? We’d all love to accomplish an achievement of that magnitude.
Toss out some of his nagging injuries, and the fact is James, at 37, is playing some of the best basketball of his career, producing his highest scoring average (29.1 points) since 2009-10, his first go-round in Cleveland. The extension James signed back in 2020 takes him through the 2022-23 season, and Bronny graduates high school in 2023. We’ve seen how James has smartly negotiated shorter deals throughout his career to keep open his options. At the end of this current Lakers deal, you can expect a short pact whether he stays or joins a new team.
Besides that, we’ve all heard the stories about how James devotes a reported $1.5 million yearly toward taking care of his body. So, James can play productively for as long as he wants, whether that’s as a frontline starter or eventually as a reserve. As a father, I’m rooting for him, and hope to be in the house on the night the James family finally fulfills this dream.
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